世界经济有可能再度衰退
时间：2021-02-26 20:05:18 来源：雅意学习网 本文已影响 人 
2011年12月1日，联合国经济和社会事务部发布《2012年世界经济形势与展望》报告。报告称，受发达国家经济增长疲弱、欧元区主权债务危机、财政紧缩措施以及各国应对危机的政策缺乏协调等因素影响，世界经济未来两年将继续减速，甚至有可能再度衰退。
报告指出，由于美国、欧洲等发达国家的情况持续恶化，未来经济前景存在很大的下行风险，如果按照悲观方案预测，发达国家有可能再次出现衰退，全球经济将止步不前。
报告表示，目前缺乏强有力的全球行动来解决世界面临的问题，特别是欧洲的问题，因此发达国家不具备强劲复苏的基础，而在不久的将来，发展中国家的情况可能也会进一步恶化。近30年来，发展中国家越来越偏重外向型增长，对出口的依赖越来越强。随着出口机会的减少，预计发展中国家将出现非常不利的情况
报告中按照3套不同的前提条件，对未来经济前景作出了基准、悲观和乐观3种方案的预测。按照基准方案，预计2012年世界经济增长为2.6%，低于2011年的2.8%，和2010年的4%相比更是明显减速；如果按照悲观方案预测，发达国家有可能再次出现衰退，全球经济将止步不前；报告指出，如果世界各国能够齐心协力、加大力度应对危机，世界经济仍有可能出现转机。在这种情况下，按照乐观预测，全球经济增长有望回升到2010年4%的水平，甚至危机爆发前的水平，而且实现更加平衡的增长。
World economy may witness another recession
On December 1, 2011, the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations released the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012 (WESP 2012), in accordance with which, the weak economic growth of the developed countries, the sovereign debt crises in the Eurozone, the fiscal austerity measures and the uncoordinated countermeasures of different countries against crisis may lead to continuous slowdown and even a renewed global recession in the future two years.
WESP 2012 said, the continued economic worsening of the USA and the European countries poses great risk for the future economic prospect, which may have a downturn. Pessimistic forecast said, the developed countries may suffer another recession and the global economy may cease to advance.
In accordance with WESP 2012, there is now no powerful global operations against the world issues, especially those faced by Europe. As a result, the developed countries do not have the foundation for a powerful economic recovery. On the other hand, in the near future, the developing countries may encounter further worsening. In the lastest 30 years, the developing countries are relying more and more on the export-oriented business. Therefore, these countries may confront many difficulties due to the decreased opportunities for export.
WESP 2012 makes the baseline, pessimistic and optimistic forecasts according to three different sets of preconditions for future economic prospects. The baseline forecast estimated a world economic growth of 2.6 percent for 2012, which remains below that of 2011, which is 2.8 percent, and shows an obvious decline over that of 2010, which 4 percent. In accordance with the pessimistic forecast, the developed countries may suffer another recession and the global economy may cease to advance. In addition, all the countries in the world should make greater joint efforts to fight against the crisis, and then a favorable turn may be seen for the world economy. In that case, the optimistic forecast said, a four percent and even pre-crisis pace of global growth may be seen and a more balanced growth may be achieved.
